Week 14 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-12-06 02:19

80%
Win Probability
+42.8
Projected Margin
CI: [+22.8 to +62.8]
1
Boom Potential
Jason Myers
3
Bust Risk
Keenan Allen (54%), Bucky Irving (54%), Rams D/ST (62%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jordan Love over Jacoby Brissett Love higher ceiling (20.0 vs 18.0). Despite Brissett's consistency, Love's 4-TD game shows upside. CHI favorable matchup (8th vs QB).
FLEX: Start Keenan Allen over Emanuel Wilson Allen 8.0 vs Wilson 6.0. Despite PHI tough D, Allen's volume safer than Wilson's unpredictable role.
RB2: Start Tyjae Spears over Emanuel Wilson Spears has defined role (7.0 proj). Wilson 49% bust probability, handcuff uncertainty.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
BE Jordan Love CHI17.620.0MODERATEHIGH
RB Bucky Irving NO16.414.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Tyjae Spears CLE8.67.0MODERATELOW
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ATL20.922.0MODERATEHIGH
WR Rashee Rice HOU17.118.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson TB9.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
BE Keenan Allen PHI10.58.0BUSTMEDIUM
K Jason Myers ATL8.311.0MODERATEHIGH
D/ST Rams D/ST ARI6.89.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 42% boom / 20% bust
ADD Michael Badgley (K) 33% boom / 42% bust
ADD Evan Engram (TE) 32% boom / 22% bust
Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jameson Williams (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Emanuel Wilson (Elite ceiling (32 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

No urgent adds needed. WR depth thin with MHJ out and McMillan on bye. Consider Garrett Wilson if healthy for Week 15 depth.

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 14 sees us trailing 24.0-17.3 after Jameson Williams' Thursday boom (17.3 pts). With MHJ out and Hampton on IR, our remaining starters project to 119.0 points for a 136.3 total. JSN leads as the consensus WR1 while Jordan Love looks to build on last week's 4-TD performance against a vulnerable Chicago defense. Key risk: Rashee Rice faces the league's #1 pass defense in Houston, though his 12-target volume provides floor protection.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 14)

17.3 - 24.0 vs Meat Pistols

Games Completed (1)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 17.3 13.8 13.8 +3.5

Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 15.3 18.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 16.4 14.0
Tyjae Spears RB RB 8.6 7.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.9 22.0
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.1 18.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.7 10.0
Jason Myers K K 8.3 11.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.8 9.0
Emanuel Wilson (bench) RB BE 6.1 6.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 17.6 20.0
Keenan Allen (bench) WR BE 10.5 8.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
Omarion Hampton (bench) RB BE 12.1 ---
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
17.3 Starter Actuals
109.0 Remaining Proj
126.3 Est. Total

Opponent: Meat Pistols

Opponent Games Completed (1)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Brandon Aubrey K K ✓ 24.0 8.9 8.9 +15.1

Opponent Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Patrick Mahomes QB QB 17.9 20.1
Nick Chubb RB RB 5.3 7.5
Ollie Gordon II RB RB 3.2 7.8
Keon Coleman WR WR 6.7 9.2
Malik Washington WR WR 8.4 8.2
Dalton Kincaid TE TE 10.0 9.6
DJ Moore WR RB/WR/TE 12.8 11.9
Vikings D/ST D/ST D/ST 5.2 6.3
Chris Boswell (bench) K BE 7.9 ---
Christian McCaffrey (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
J.J. McCarthy (bench) QB BE 14.7 ---
Packers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 3.7 ---
Ray Davis (bench) RB BE 2.6 0.0
Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
Sam LaPorta (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
24.0 Opp Actuals
80.6 Opp Remaining
104.6 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +21.7 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM[17.6-35.6], 47% MOD[9.1-24.1]. XGB: 27% boom, 23% bust. CHI 8th vs QB (favorable), 4 TDs last week, cold weather (25F) manageable with low wind. Selecting MODERATE on favorable matchup. 20.0 within MOD range.

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 8 | ECR: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year17.47.1?-10.4
11Ryan's Rowdy Team16.317.7?+1.3
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits17.07.8?-9.1
9The Warsaw Pact 18.19.0?-9.1
8Kitty's Piggy Skins17.128.3?+11.2
7Moms rules 17.413.4?-4.0
6Smooth Roosters19.315.0?-4.4
5Torta Pounders Football Club0.00.0?+0.0
4Auto DraftKings 18.626.3?+7.7
3Meat Pistols16.011.1?-4.9
24th and pinches17.620.9?+3.3
1Wookie of the Year14.915.9?+1.0
  • Trending down: 10.9 avg (last 3) vs 16.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 70% BOOM[12.7-30.7]! XGB: 23% boom, 32% bust. 7 straight games 18.7+ pts, extremely consistent. LAR defense leaky. High MC boom but XGB conservative. Selecting high-end MODERATE. 18.0 near top of MOD[7.3-22.3] range.

Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 17

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%

XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year16.718.7?+1.9

Bucky Irving (TB vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 22% BOOM[16.3-31.3], 61% MOD[8-20]. XGB: 9% boom, 54% bust - DISAGREE with MC. Coming off injury, limited snaps expected. NO defense poor vs RB but XGB signals caution. Selecting MODERATE conservatively. 14.0 within MOD range.

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 10

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team0.00.0?+0.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits0.00.0?+0.0
9The Warsaw Pact 0.00.0?+0.0
8Kitty's Piggy Skins0.00.0?+0.0
7Moms rules 0.00.0?+0.0
6Smooth Roosters0.00.0?+0.0
5Torta Pounders Football Club0.00.0?+0.0
4Auto DraftKings 17.525.5?+8.0
3Meat Pistols17.913.9?-4.0
24th and pinches15.918.1?+2.2
1Wookie of the Year17.314.5?-2.8
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.55)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 7.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM[12.9-27.9], 61% MOD[2.9-14.9]. XGB: 17% boom, 36% bust. TOUGH conditions - CLE 9th vs RB, 31F, 20mph wind, 80% precip. Low-volume TEN offense. Selecting MODERATE conservatively. 7.0 within MOD range.

Context: O/U: 34 | Def Rank: 9 | ECR: 85

MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year9.66.5?-3.1
11Ryan's Rowdy Team9.08.4?-0.6
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits0.00.0?+0.0
9The Warsaw Pact 9.59.2?-0.3
8Kitty's Piggy Skins9.517.2?+7.7
7Moms rules 7.87.0?-0.8
  • Trending down: 5.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.69)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: INJURY_RESERVE status per ESPN. Despite ESPN projection, player confirmed OUT. Setting 0.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 25

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 57% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team0.00.0?+0.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits0.00.0?+0.0
9The Warsaw Pact 0.00.0?+0.0
8Kitty's Piggy Skins0.00.0?+0.0
  • Highly consistent scorer (CV: 0.00)

Emanuel Wilson (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM, 49% BUST[-1.4-6.1]. XGB: 13% boom, 50% bust. Josh Jacobs handcuff, unpredictable volume. CHI 4th vs RB favorable but role uncertainty. Selecting BUST mode. 6.0 at top of BUST range.

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 4 | ECR: 95

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year14.526.5?+12.0

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM[21.9-36.9], 43% MOD[12.6-24.6]. XGB: 11% boom, 24% bust. WR1 consensus, ATL 15th vs WR (neutral). JSN on historic pace with 7+ rec in 6 straight. Selecting MODERATE - XGB bust risk low. 22.0 within MOD range.

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 15 | ECR: 5

MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year21.337.1?+15.8
11Ryan's Rowdy Team23.020.6?-2.4
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits22.020.3?-1.7
9The Warsaw Pact 24.522.0?-2.5
8Kitty's Piggy Skins0.00.0?+0.0
7Moms rules 20.026.3?+6.3
6Smooth Roosters17.930.2?+12.3
5Torta Pounders Football Club15.927.2?+11.3
4Auto DraftKings 16.413.0?-3.4
3Meat Pistols15.520.6?+5.1
24th and pinches14.418.3?+3.9
1Wookie of the Year14.719.4?+4.7
  • Averaging 21.2 pts vs 17.1 projected (+24%)
  • Trending up: 26.0 avg (last 3) vs 16.1 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs BYE)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)

Reasoning: CAR on BYE Week 14. No projection needed.

Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year16.311.5?-4.8
11Ryan's Rowdy Team13.533.0?+19.5
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits12.211.0?-1.2
9The Warsaw Pact 12.98.6?-4.3
8Kitty's Piggy Skins13.416.9?+3.5
7Moms rules 12.56.3?-6.2
6Smooth Roosters14.617.9?+3.3
5Torta Pounders Football Club14.213.3?-0.9
4Auto DraftKings 14.210.2?-4.0
3Meat Pistols13.27.8?-5.4
24th and pinches13.516.0?+2.5
1Wookie of the Year13.911.8?-2.1
  • Trending up: 18.5 avg (last 3) vs 10.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.52)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: Confirmed OUT - INJURY_RESERVE status per ESPN. Setting 0.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team0.00.0?+0.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits13.314.3?+1.0
9The Warsaw Pact 13.322.6?+9.3
8Kitty's Piggy Skins0.00.0?+0.0
7Moms rules 12.57.8?-4.7
6Smooth Roosters11.95.2?-6.7
5Torta Pounders Football Club12.813.8?+1.0
4Auto DraftKings 11.318.6?+7.3
3Meat Pistols12.77.4?-5.3
24th and pinches14.04.7?-9.3
1Wookie of the Year13.918.1?+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.8 avg (last 3) vs 10.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.84)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% BOOM[16.7-31.7], 29% MOD[9.7-21.7]. XGB: 34% boom, 31% bust. TOUGH matchup - HOU #1 pass D. Despite high MC boom%, XGB tempers expectations. 12 targets Week 13 shows volume. Selecting MODERATE due to elite defense. 18.0 within MOD range.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 1 | ECR: 11

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%

XGB (This Week): Boom 34% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year17.624.1?+6.5
11Ryan's Rowdy Team16.49.8?-6.6
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits0.00.0?+0.0
9The Warsaw Pact 18.418.6?+0.2
8Kitty's Piggy Skins17.225.5?+8.2
7Moms rules 13.723.2?+9.5
6Smooth Roosters0.00.0?+0.0
5Torta Pounders Football Club0.00.0?+0.0
4Auto DraftKings 0.00.0?+0.0
3Meat Pistols0.00.0?+0.0
24th and pinches0.00.0?+0.0
  • Averaging 9.2 pts vs 7.6 projected (+21%)
  • Trending down: 11.3 avg (last 3) vs 22.4 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.23)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 8

Jameson Williams (DET vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 13.8 (COMPLETED)

Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED Thursday. Actual: 17.3 pts. Using ESPN pre-game projection (no hindsight bias).

Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16

MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year12.90.0?-12.9
11Ryan's Rowdy Team12.619.7?+7.1

Keenan Allen (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM, 63% BUST[3.2-10.7]. XGB: 11% boom, 54% bust. PHI 3rd vs WR (elite), WR38 ranking, 6.2 proj. Both MC and XGB agree on bust risk. Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST range.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 3 | ECR: 110

MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits12.53.9?-8.6
9The Warsaw Pact 14.06.1?-7.9
8Kitty's Piggy Skins16.08.4?-7.6
7Moms rules 13.528.9?+15.4
6Smooth Roosters16.36.7?-9.6
5Torta Pounders Football Club14.610.8?-3.8
4Auto DraftKings 13.68.7?-4.9
3Meat Pistols13.419.5?+6.1
24th and pinches12.917.1?+4.2
1Wookie of the Year11.019.8?+8.8
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending down: 6.1 avg (last 3) vs 15.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.61)
  • Season high: 28.9 pts in Week 7

Evan Engram (DEN vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.

Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team8.37.3?-1.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits7.33.2?-4.1
9The Warsaw Pact 7.90.0?-7.9
8Kitty's Piggy Skins9.97.6?-2.3
7Moms rules 9.39.2?-0.1
6Smooth Roosters8.99.9?+1.0
5Torta Pounders Football Club7.713.3?+5.6
4Auto DraftKings 6.26.9?+0.7
3Meat Pistols0.00.0?+0.0
24th and pinches8.92.2?-6.7
1Wookie of the Year9.95.1?-4.8
  • Averaging 5.4 pts vs 7.0 projected (-23%)
  • Trending down: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 5.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.81)
  • Season high: 13.3 pts in Week 5

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 36% BOOM[8.7-20.7], 35% MOD[4.7-13.7]. XGB: 24% boom, 29% bust. TB 2nd-biggest pass funnel, TE9 ranking. Solid floor play. Selecting MODERATE. 10.0 within MOD range.

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 60

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year9.310.6?+1.3
11Ryan's Rowdy Team0.00.0?+0.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits8.919.2?+10.2
9The Warsaw Pact 8.312.1?+3.8
  • Averaging 10.5 pts vs 6.6 projected (+58%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.76)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BYE)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)

Reasoning: NE on BYE Week 14. No projection needed.

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs BYE

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52%

Notes: CAR on BYE Week 14. No projection needed.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year16.311.5?-4.8
11Ryan's Rowdy Team13.533.0?+19.5
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits12.211.0?-1.2
9The Warsaw Pact 12.98.6?-4.3
8Kitty's Piggy Skins13.416.9?+3.5
7Moms rules 12.56.3?-6.2
6Smooth Roosters14.617.9?+3.3
5Torta Pounders Football Club14.213.3?-0.9
4Auto DraftKings 14.210.2?-4.0
3Meat Pistols13.27.8?-5.4
24th and pinches13.516.0?+2.5
1Wookie of the Year13.911.8?-2.1
  • Trending up: 18.5 avg (last 3) vs 10.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.52)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs LV

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%

Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team8.37.3?-1.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits7.33.2?-4.1
9The Warsaw Pact 7.90.0?-7.9
8Kitty's Piggy Skins9.97.6?-2.3
7Moms rules 9.39.2?-0.1
6Smooth Roosters8.99.9?+1.0
5Torta Pounders Football Club7.713.3?+5.6
4Auto DraftKings 6.26.9?+0.7
3Meat Pistols0.00.0?+0.0
24th and pinches8.92.2?-6.7
1Wookie of the Year9.95.1?-4.8
  • Averaging 5.4 pts vs 7.0 projected (-23%)
  • Trending down: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 5.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.81)
  • Season high: 13.3 pts in Week 5

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs LAR

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20%

Notes: Confirmed OUT - INJURY_RESERVE status per ESPN. Setting 0.0 pts.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team0.00.0?+0.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits13.314.3?+1.0
9The Warsaw Pact 13.322.6?+9.3
8Kitty's Piggy Skins0.00.0?+0.0
7Moms rules 12.57.8?-4.7
6Smooth Roosters11.95.2?-6.7
5Torta Pounders Football Club12.813.8?+1.0
4Auto DraftKings 11.318.6?+7.3
3Meat Pistols12.77.4?-5.3
24th and pinches14.04.7?-9.3
1Wookie of the Year13.918.1?+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.8 avg (last 3) vs 10.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.84)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 57%

Notes: INJURY_RESERVE status per ESPN. Despite ESPN projection, player confirmed OUT. Setting 0.0 pts.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year0.00.0?+0.0
11Ryan's Rowdy Team0.00.0?+0.0
10Chupi and the End Zone Bandits0.00.0?+0.0
9The Warsaw Pact 0.00.0?+0.0
8Kitty's Piggy Skins0.00.0?+0.0
  • Highly consistent scorer (CV: 0.00)

Jameson Williams (WR) - DET vs DAL

Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 13.8

MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51%

Notes: GAME COMPLETED Thursday. Actual: 17.3 pts. Using ESPN pre-game projection (no hindsight bias).

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year12.90.0?-12.9
11Ryan's Rowdy Team12.619.7?+7.1

Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50%

Notes: MC: 11% BOOM, 49% BUST[-1.4-6.1]. XGB: 13% boom, 50% bust. Josh Jacobs handcuff, unpredictable volume. CHI 4th vs RB favorable but role uncertainty. Selecting BUST mode. 6.0 at top of BUST range.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year14.526.5?+12.0

Jacoby Brissett (QB) - ARI vs LAR

Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 18.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%

XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 32%

Notes: MC: 70% BOOM[12.7-30.7]! XGB: 23% boom, 32% bust. 7 straight games 18.7+ pts, extremely consistent. LAR defense leaky. High MC boom but XGB conservative. Selecting high-end MODERATE. 18.0 near top of MOD[7.3-22.3] range.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
12Wookie of the Year16.718.7?+1.9

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BYE

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%

Notes: NE on BYE Week 14. No projection needed.

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Patrick Mahomes (QB): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Patrick Mahomes QB 17.9 20.1 MODERATE 48% 37% 16% HIGH
Malik Washington WR 8.4 8.2 MODERATE 27% 46% 27% MEDIUM
DJ Moore WR 9.1 11.9 MODERATE 23% 52% 25% MEDIUM
Keon Coleman WR 6.7 9.2 MODERATE 15% 55% 30% LOW
Ray Davis RB 0.0 0.0 BUST 13% 36% 51% LOW
Ollie Gordon II RB 3.2 7.8 BUST 12% 34% 54% LOW
Vikings D/ST D/ST 5.2 6.3 MODERATE 12% 42% 46% LOW
Nick Chubb RB 5.3 7.5 BUST 11% 27% 62% LOW
Brandon Aubrey K 8.9 8.9 BUST 11% 26% 63% LOW
Dalton Kincaid TE 10.0 9.6 BUST 10% 34% 57% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 16%)

Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 27%)

DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 23% | Bust 25%)

Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 30%)

Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)

Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 54%)

Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 46%)

Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 62%)

Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 63%)

Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 57%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (3): Jameson Williams (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Emanuel Wilson (Elite ceiling (32 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%42%
Bust%20%
EV11.8
BUST: 48% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 12% (13-28)
ADD Michael Badgley K,
Boom%33%
Bust%42%
EV8.0
BUST: 28% (1-7) MODERATE: 50% (4-12) BOOM: 22% (8-17)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%32%
Bust%22%
EV9.4
BUST: 48% (2-8) MODERATE: 45% (7-16) BOOM: 7% (16-28)
ADD Ka'imi Fairbairn K,
Boom%28%
Bust%31%
EV9.7
BUST: 14% (0-6) MODERATE: 48% (5-12) BOOM: 38% (9-18)
ADD Tyler Allgeier RB,
Boom%28%
Bust%33%
EV0.0
BUST: 48% (-0-7) MODERATE: 35% (4-16) BOOM: 16% (10-25)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 11.8 42% 20% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.0 33% 42% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 9.4 32% 22% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 9.7 28% 31% 0.0%
Tyler Allgeier RB 0.0 28% 33% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 8.7 28% 26% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.1 27% 39% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.7 27% 26% 0.0%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 6.0 26% 31% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 7.2 22% 43% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.2 21% 37% 0.0%
Aaron Rodgers QB 15.4 19% 50% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 0.0 19% 43% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 8.7 18% 46% 0.0%
Evan McPherson K 8.2 17% 53% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Aaron Rodgers 15.4 BUST:50%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% 19% 50%
Kyler Murray 17.2 BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% 14% 45%
Justin Fields 0.0 OUT:100% 14% 49%
Sam Darnold 15.4 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 13% 41%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 11.8 BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% 42% 20%
Tyler Allgeier 0.0 BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% 28% 33%
Isiah Pacheco 8.7 BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% 27% 26%
Trey Benson 8.2 BUST:36%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:25% 21% 37%
Devin Neal 8.7 BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% 15% 47%
Chuba Hubbard 10.9 BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% 14% 49%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.0 BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% 9% 58%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 14.1 BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% 27% 39%
Matthew Golden 8.7 BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% 18% 46%
Cooper Kupp 10.4 BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% 12% 58%
Tre Tucker 9.9 BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% 9% 42%
Jayden Reed 11.7 BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% 0% 0%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 9.4 BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% 32% 22%
Harold Fannin Jr. 8.7 BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% 28% 26%
Colston Loveland 9.5 BUST:51%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% 8% 56%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Michael Badgley 8.0 33% 42%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 9.7 28% 31%
Evan McPherson 8.2 17% 53%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 6.0 26% 31%
Patriots D/ST 7.2 22% 43%
Commanders D/ST 0.0 19% 43%

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Jason MyersK8.311.0MODERATE44.9%34.9%20.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR---0.0OUT36.7%43.8%19.5%
Rashee RiceWR17.118.0MODERATE33.6%35.1%31.3%
Jordan LoveQB17.620.0MODERATE26.6%50.8%22.6%
Evan EngramTE8.16.0BUST25.3%49.2%25.5%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.710.0MODERATE24.1%47.2%28.7%
Jacoby BrissettQB15.318.0MODERATE23.1%44.4%32.4%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.67.0MODERATE17.3%47.0%35.7%
Emanuel WilsonRB6.16.0BUST13.3%37.0%49.7%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.922.0MODERATE11.4%64.5%24.0%
Tetairoa McMillanWR---0.0BYE11.1%36.6%52.3%
Omarion HamptonRB12.10.0OUT11.0%32.3%56.7%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.813.8COMPLETED10.7%38.1%51.2%
Keenan AllenWR10.58.0BUST10.5%35.9%53.6%
Rams D/STD/ST6.89.0MODERATE9.5%29.0%61.5%
Bucky IrvingRB16.414.0MODERATE9.1%37.0%53.9%
Hunter HenryTE---0.0BYE8.7%31.2%60.1%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 14 | Generated: 2025-12-06 02:18

Matchup Summary

83.5%

Win Probability

+29.2
Expected Margin
126.3
My Team (LLM Proj)
89.5
Opponent (Proj)
30.0
Margin Std Dev
118.7
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -9.5 pts | Median: +29.8 pts | Ceiling: +67.1 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
TE Dalton Kincaid QUESTIONABLE 12.2 Sam LaPorta 11.9

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 89.6 83.2% +28.9
All injured starters out 15.0% 91.4 81.9% +27.3

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 18.0 4.4-28.5 ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 14.0 4.3-24.6 ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 12% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 7.0 2.1-19.8 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 27% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR HIGH 22.0 5.6-29.8 ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 7% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 18.0 7.1-28.1 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 17.3 4.2-25.3 ↑15+: 46% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 2.5-16.9 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 25% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.0 0.0-17.7 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 44% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 11.0 4.7-16.4 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 12% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 20.0 6.5-28.3 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 0.0 2.5-24.0 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 23% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson RB HIGH 6.0 0.4-20.5 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 44% Emanuel Wilson
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 0.0 4.9-26.1 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Keenan Allen WR HIGH 8.0 4.5-25.8 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 14% Keenan Allen
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 0.0 3.4-22.2 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 26% Hunter Henry

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Patrick Mahomes QB MED 20.1 10.0-31.3 ↑15+: 68% | ↓5-: 0% Patrick Mahomes
Nick Chubb RB HIGH 7.5 1.6-15.7 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 44% Nick Chubb
Ollie Gordon II RB HIGH 7.8 0.4-17.1 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 42% Ollie Gordon II
DJ Moore WR HIGH 11.9 4.2-22.8 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 17% DJ Moore
Keon Coleman WR HIGH 9.2 2.5-18.5 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 31% Keon Coleman
Malik Washington WR HIGH 8.2 2.1-15.7 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 33% Malik Washington
Dalton Kincaid TE HIGH 9.6 2.7-18.5 ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 28% Dalton Kincaid
Vikings D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.3 0.0-20.7 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 59% Vikings D/ST
Brandon Aubrey K HIGH 8.9 3.3-16.4 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 22% Brandon Aubrey

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
J.J. McCarthy QB HIGH 14.9 3.4-26.6 ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 16% J.J. McCarthy
Christian McCaffrey RB MED 22.3 11.5-34.9 ↑15+: 71% | ↓5-: 0% Christian McCaffrey
Rhamondre Stevenson RB HIGH 10.3 2.2-20.7 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 32% Rhamondre Stevenson
Ray Davis RB HIGH 0.0 0.3-16.1 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 49% Ray Davis
Sam LaPorta TE HIGH 11.4 3.6-19.8 ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 19% Sam LaPorta
Packers D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.8 0.0-15.5 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 46% Packers D/ST
Chris Boswell K HIGH 8.4 1.9-15.6 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 30% Chris Boswell

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 22% @ 23.8 61% @ 14.0 17% @ 4.3 14.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 23% @ 29.4 43% @ 18.6 34% @ 7.2 17.1
Rashee Rice WR 47% @ 24.2 29% @ 15.7 25% @ 7.9 17.8
Tyjae Spears RB 18% @ 20.4 61% @ 8.9 20% @ 3.0 9.8
Jason Myers K 22% @ 15.9 44% @ 11.2 34% @ 5.8 10.3
Juwan Johnson TE 36% @ 14.7 35% @ 9.2 28% @ 3.6 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 26% @ 24.0 41% @ 15.2 33% @ 5.6 14.4
Jacoby Brissett QB 70% @ 21.7 5% @ 14.8 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Rams D/ST D/ST 23% @ 16.3 40% @ 8.0 37% @ 1.3 7.5

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent adds needed. WR depth thin with MHJ out and McMillan on bye. Consider Garrett Wilson if healthy for Week 15 depth.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 14 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 20.0 pts
ESPN 17.6 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 15.8 pts
90th percentile 28.1 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 16.4 pts
BUST
17%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 14.1 pts
90th percentile 24.8 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 20.9 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 5.6 pts
Median (50th) 16.8 pts
90th percentile 30.0 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 10.2 pts
90th percentile 25.9 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Evan Engram (TE)
09182736Fantasy PointsESPNLLMSeason
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 8.1 pts
BUST
52%
MODERATE
39%
BOOM
8%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 15.7 pts
MC (Historical)
8% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
OUT
100%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 0.0 pts
90th percentile 0.0 pts
MC (Historical)
0% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
37% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 17.1 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
47%
10th percentile 7.0 pts
Median (50th) 18.0 pts
90th percentile 28.3 pts
MC (Historical)
47% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
34% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 8.6 pts
BUST
20%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 2.1 pts
Median (50th) 8.2 pts
90th percentile 19.8 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 12.1 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
31%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 10.8 pts
90th percentile 24.2 pts
MC (Historical)
31% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 8.3 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 4.6 pts
Median (50th) 10.2 pts
90th percentile 16.3 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
45% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 9.7 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
35%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 2.5 pts
Median (50th) 9.3 pts
90th percentile 16.9 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 13.8 pts
ESPN 13.8 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 14.2 pts
90th percentile 25.9 pts
MC (Historical)
26% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Emanuel Wilson (RB)
Emanuel Wilson distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 6.1 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
39%
BOOM
11%
10th percentile 0.5 pts
Median (50th) 6.8 pts
90th percentile 20.7 pts
MC (Historical)
11% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 15.3 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
5%
BOOM
70%
10th percentile 4.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 28.2 pts
MC (Historical)
70% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 6.8 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 6.3 pts
90th percentile 17.5 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Keenan Allen (WR)
Keenan Allen distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 10.5 pts
BUST
63%
MODERATE
26%
BOOM
11%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 8.8 pts
90th percentile 26.0 pts
MC (Historical)
11% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 3.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.2 pts
90th percentile 21.8 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Patrick Mahomes (QB)
Patrick Mahomes distribution
LLM 20.1 pts
ESPN 17.9 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
47%
10th percentile 10.0 pts
Median (50th) 19.7 pts
90th percentile 31.5 pts
MC (Historical)
47% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
48% BOOM
Vikings D/ST (D/ST)
Vikings D/ST distribution
LLM 6.3 pts
ESPN 5.2 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 2.7 pts
90th percentile 20.5 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
DJ Moore (WR)
DJ Moore distribution
LLM 11.9 pts
ESPN 9.1 pts
BUST
64%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
2%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 8.4 pts
90th percentile 22.7 pts
MC (Historical)
2% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Malik Washington (WR)
Malik Washington distribution
LLM 8.2 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
48%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 2.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.4 pts
90th percentile 15.8 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Nick Chubb (RB)
Nick Chubb distribution
LLM 7.5 pts
ESPN 5.3 pts
BUST
55%
MODERATE
35%
BOOM
11%
10th percentile 1.7 pts
Median (50th) 5.9 pts
90th percentile 15.7 pts
MC (Historical)
11% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Dalton Kincaid (TE)
Dalton Kincaid distribution
LLM 9.6 pts
ESPN 10.0 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
33%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 8.3 pts
90th percentile 18.4 pts
MC (Historical)
33% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Brandon Aubrey (K)
Brandon Aubrey distribution
LLM 8.9 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
50%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 3.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.1 pts
90th percentile 16.3 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Ray Davis (RB)
Ray Davis distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
46%
MODERATE
39%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 0.2 pts
Median (50th) 5.3 pts
90th percentile 16.2 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Ollie Gordon II (RB)
Ollie Gordon II distribution
LLM 7.8 pts
ESPN 3.2 pts
BUST
46%
MODERATE
36%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 0.4 pts
Median (50th) 6.6 pts
90th percentile 17.2 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Keon Coleman (WR)
Keon Coleman distribution
LLM 9.2 pts
ESPN 6.7 pts
BUST
45%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
13%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 18.7 pts
MC (Historical)
13% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM