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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | Jordan Love | CHI | 17.6 | 20.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| RB | Bucky Irving | NO | 16.4 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | CLE | 8.6 | 7.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | HOU | 17.1 | 18.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| BE | Keenan Allen | PHI | 10.5 | 8.0 | BUST | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | ATL | 8.3 | 11.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | ARI | 6.8 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Jameson Williams (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Emanuel Wilson (Elite ceiling (32 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
No urgent adds needed. WR depth thin with MHJ out and McMillan on bye. Consider Garrett Wilson if healthy for Week 15 depth.
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 14 sees us trailing 24.0-17.3 after Jameson Williams' Thursday boom (17.3 pts). With MHJ out and Hampton on IR, our remaining starters project to 119.0 points for a 136.3 total. JSN leads as the consensus WR1 while Jordan Love looks to build on last week's 4-TD performance against a vulnerable Chicago defense. Key risk: Rashee Rice faces the league's #1 pass defense in Houston, though his 12-target volume provides floor protection.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 17.3 | 13.8 | 13.8 | +3.5 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 15.3 | 18.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 16.4 | 14.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | 8.6 | 7.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.9 | 22.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.1 | 18.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.3 | 11.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 17.6 | 20.0 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | 8.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 12.1 | --- |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aubrey | K | K | ✓ 24.0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | +15.1 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | QB | 17.9 | 20.1 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB | 5.3 | 7.5 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | RB | 3.2 | 7.8 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR | 6.7 | 9.2 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR | 8.4 | 8.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| DJ Moore | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.8 | 11.9 |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 |
| Chris Boswell (bench) | K | BE | 7.9 | --- |
| Christian McCaffrey (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| J.J. McCarthy (bench) | QB | BE | 14.7 | --- |
| Packers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 3.7 | --- |
| Ray Davis (bench) | RB | BE | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Sam LaPorta (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM[17.6-35.6], 47% MOD[9.1-24.1]. XGB: 27% boom, 23% bust. CHI 8th vs QB (favorable), 4 TDs last week, cold weather (25F) manageable with low wind. Selecting MODERATE on favorable matchup. 20.0 within MOD range.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 8 | ECR: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 70% BOOM[12.7-30.7]! XGB: 23% boom, 32% bust. 7 straight games 18.7+ pts, extremely consistent. LAR defense leaky. High MC boom but XGB conservative. Selecting high-end MODERATE. 18.0 near top of MOD[7.3-22.3] range.
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 17
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%
XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.7 | 18.7 | ? | +1.9 |
Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 22% BOOM[16.3-31.3], 61% MOD[8-20]. XGB: 9% boom, 54% bust - DISAGREE with MC. Coming off injury, limited snaps expected. NO defense poor vs RB but XGB signals caution. Selecting MODERATE conservatively. 14.0 within MOD range.
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 10
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 17.5 | 25.5 | ? | +8.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 17.9 | 13.9 | ? | -4.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 15.9 | 18.1 | ? | +2.2 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 17.3 | 14.5 | ? | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 7.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM[12.9-27.9], 61% MOD[2.9-14.9]. XGB: 17% boom, 36% bust. TOUGH conditions - CLE 9th vs RB, 31F, 20mph wind, 80% precip. Low-volume TEN offense. Selecting MODERATE conservatively. 7.0 within MOD range.
Context: O/U: 34 | Def Rank: 9 | ECR: 85
MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: INJURY_RESERVE status per ESPN. Despite ESPN projection, player confirmed OUT. Setting 0.0 pts.
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 25
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 57% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM, 49% BUST[-1.4-6.1]. XGB: 13% boom, 50% bust. Josh Jacobs handcuff, unpredictable volume. CHI 4th vs RB favorable but role uncertainty. Selecting BUST mode. 6.0 at top of BUST range.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 4 | ECR: 95
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 14.5 | 26.5 | ? | +12.0 |
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM[21.9-36.9], 43% MOD[12.6-24.6]. XGB: 11% boom, 24% bust. WR1 consensus, ATL 15th vs WR (neutral). JSN on historic pace with 7+ rec in 6 straight. Selecting MODERATE - XGB bust risk low. 22.0 within MOD range.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 15 | ECR: 5
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 21.3 | 37.1 | ? | +15.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 23.0 | 20.6 | ? | -2.4 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 22.0 | 20.3 | ? | -1.7 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 24.5 | 22.0 | ? | -2.5 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 20.0 | 26.3 | ? | +6.3 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 17.9 | 30.2 | ? | +12.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 15.9 | 27.2 | ? | +11.3 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 16.4 | 13.0 | ? | -3.4 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 15.5 | 20.6 | ? | +5.1 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.4 | 18.3 | ? | +3.9 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 14.7 | 19.4 | ? | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)
Reasoning: CAR on BYE Week 14. No projection needed.
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: Confirmed OUT - INJURY_RESERVE status per ESPN. Setting 0.0 pts.
Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% BOOM[16.7-31.7], 29% MOD[9.7-21.7]. XGB: 34% boom, 31% bust. TOUGH matchup - HOU #1 pass D. Despite high MC boom%, XGB tempers expectations. 12 targets Week 13 shows volume. Selecting MODERATE due to elite defense. 18.0 within MOD range.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 1 | ECR: 11
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%
XGB (This Week): Boom 34% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 17.6 | 24.1 | ? | +6.5 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 16.4 | 9.8 | ? | -6.6 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 18.4 | 18.6 | ? | +0.2 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 17.2 | 25.5 | ? | +8.2 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 13.7 | 23.2 | ? | +9.5 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 13.8 (COMPLETED)
Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED Thursday. Actual: 17.3 pts. Using ESPN pre-game projection (no hindsight bias).
Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16
MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 12.9 | 0.0 | ? | -12.9 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 12.6 | 19.7 | ? | +7.1 |
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM, 63% BUST[3.2-10.7]. XGB: 11% boom, 54% bust. PHI 3rd vs WR (elite), WR38 ranking, 6.2 proj. Both MC and XGB agree on bust risk. Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST range.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 3 | ECR: 110
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.5 | 3.9 | ? | -8.6 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 14.0 | 6.1 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 16.0 | 8.4 | ? | -7.6 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 13.5 | 28.9 | ? | +15.4 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 16.3 | 6.7 | ? | -9.6 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.6 | 10.8 | ? | -3.8 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 13.6 | 8.7 | ? | -4.9 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.4 | 19.5 | ? | +6.1 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 12.9 | 17.1 | ? | +4.2 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 11.0 | 19.8 | ? | +8.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8.3 | 7.3 | ? | -1.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 7.3 | 3.2 | ? | -4.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 7.9 | 0.0 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.9 | 7.6 | ? | -2.3 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 9.3 | 9.2 | ? | -0.1 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 8.9 | 9.9 | ? | +1.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7.7 | 13.3 | ? | +5.6 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 6.2 | 6.9 | ? | +0.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 8.9 | 2.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 5.1 | ? | -4.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 36% BOOM[8.7-20.7], 35% MOD[4.7-13.7]. XGB: 24% boom, 29% bust. TB 2nd-biggest pass funnel, TE9 ranking. Solid floor play. Selecting MODERATE. 10.0 within MOD range.
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 60
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.3 | 10.6 | ? | +1.3 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 8.9 | 19.2 | ? | +10.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 8.3 | 12.1 | ? | +3.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)
Reasoning: NE on BYE Week 14. No projection needed.
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52%
Notes: CAR on BYE Week 14. No projection needed.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8.3 | 7.3 | ? | -1.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 7.3 | 3.2 | ? | -4.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 7.9 | 0.0 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.9 | 7.6 | ? | -2.3 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 9.3 | 9.2 | ? | -0.1 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 8.9 | 9.9 | ? | +1.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7.7 | 13.3 | ? | +5.6 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 6.2 | 6.9 | ? | +0.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 8.9 | 2.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 5.1 | ? | -4.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20%
Notes: Confirmed OUT - INJURY_RESERVE status per ESPN. Setting 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 57%
Notes: INJURY_RESERVE status per ESPN. Despite ESPN projection, player confirmed OUT. Setting 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 13.8
MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51%
Notes: GAME COMPLETED Thursday. Actual: 17.3 pts. Using ESPN pre-game projection (no hindsight bias).
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 12.9 | 0.0 | ? | -12.9 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 12.6 | 19.7 | ? | +7.1 |
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50%
Notes: MC: 11% BOOM, 49% BUST[-1.4-6.1]. XGB: 13% boom, 50% bust. Josh Jacobs handcuff, unpredictable volume. CHI 4th vs RB favorable but role uncertainty. Selecting BUST mode. 6.0 at top of BUST range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 14.5 | 26.5 | ? | +12.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 18.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%
XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 32%
Notes: MC: 70% BOOM[12.7-30.7]! XGB: 23% boom, 32% bust. 7 straight games 18.7+ pts, extremely consistent. LAR defense leaky. High MC boom but XGB conservative. Selecting high-end MODERATE. 18.0 near top of MOD[7.3-22.3] range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.7 | 18.7 | ? | +1.9 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%
Notes: NE on BYE Week 14. No projection needed.
Patrick Mahomes (QB): 48% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 17.9 | 20.1 | MODERATE | 48% | 37% | 16% | HIGH | |
| Malik Washington | WR | 8.4 | 8.2 | MODERATE | 27% | 46% | 27% | MEDIUM | |
| DJ Moore | WR | 9.1 | 11.9 | MODERATE | 23% | 52% | 25% | MEDIUM | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 6.7 | 9.2 | MODERATE | 15% | 55% | 30% | LOW | |
| Ray Davis | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 13% | 36% | 51% | LOW | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | 3.2 | 7.8 | BUST | 12% | 34% | 54% | LOW | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | MODERATE | 12% | 42% | 46% | LOW | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 5.3 | 7.5 | BUST | 11% | 27% | 62% | LOW | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | 8.9 | 8.9 | BUST | 11% | 26% | 63% | LOW | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 10.0 | 9.6 | BUST | 10% | 34% | 57% | LOW |
Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 16%)
Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 27%)
DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 23% | Bust 25%)
Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 30%)
Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)
Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 54%)
Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 46%)
Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 62%)
Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 63%)
Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 57%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 11.8 | 42% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.0 | 33% | 42% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 9.4 | 32% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 9.7 | 28% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.0 | 28% | 33% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 8.7 | 28% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.1 | 27% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.7 | 27% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 6.0 | 26% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 7.2 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.2 | 21% | 37% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 15.4 | 19% | 50% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 8.7 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Evan McPherson | K | 8.2 | 17% | 53% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15.4 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% | 19% | 50% | |
| Kyler Murray | 17.2 | BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% | 14% | 45% | |
| Justin Fields | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 14% | 49% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 13% | 41% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 11.8 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% | 42% | 20% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0.0 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% | 28% | 33% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.7 | BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% | 27% | 26% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.2 | BUST:36%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:25% | 21% | 37% | |
| Devin Neal | 8.7 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 47% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 10.9 | BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% | 14% | 49% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.0 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% | 9% | 58% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.1 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% | 27% | 39% | |
| Matthew Golden | 8.7 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% | 18% | 46% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.4 | BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% | 12% | 58% | |
| Tre Tucker | 9.9 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% | 9% | 42% | |
| Jayden Reed | 11.7 | BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 9.4 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% | 32% | 22% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 8.7 | BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% | 28% | 26% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.5 | BUST:51%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% | 8% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.0 | 33% | 42% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 9.7 | 28% | 31% | |
| Evan McPherson | 8.2 | 17% | 53% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 6.0 | 26% | 31% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 7.2 | 22% | 43% | |
| Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.3 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 44.9% | 34.9% | 20.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | --- | 0.0 | OUT | 36.7% | 43.8% | 19.5% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.1 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 33.6% | 35.1% | 31.3% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.6 | 20.0 | MODERATE | 26.6% | 50.8% | 22.6% |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 25.3% | 49.2% | 25.5% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 24.1% | 47.2% | 28.7% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 15.3 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 23.1% | 44.4% | 32.4% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.6 | 7.0 | MODERATE | 17.3% | 47.0% | 35.7% |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 6.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 13.3% | 37.0% | 49.7% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.9 | 22.0 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 64.5% | 24.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | --- | 0.0 | BYE | 11.1% | 36.6% | 52.3% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 12.1 | 0.0 | OUT | 11.0% | 32.3% | 56.7% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.8 | 13.8 | COMPLETED | 10.7% | 38.1% | 51.2% |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 10.5 | 8.0 | BUST | 10.5% | 35.9% | 53.6% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 9.5% | 29.0% | 61.5% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 16.4 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 9.1% | 37.0% | 53.9% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | --- | 0.0 | BYE | 8.7% | 31.2% | 60.1% |
Win Probability
Floor: -9.5 pts | Median: +29.8 pts | Ceiling: +67.1 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | QUESTIONABLE | 12.2 | Sam LaPorta | 11.9 |
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 89.6 | 83.2% | +28.9 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 91.4 | 81.9% | +27.3 |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 18.0 | 4.4-28.5 | ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 14.0 | 4.3-24.6 | ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 7.0 | 2.1-19.8 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | HIGH | 22.0 | 5.6-29.8 | ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 18.0 | 7.1-28.1 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 17.3 | 4.2-25.3 | ↑15+: 46% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.5-16.9 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 25% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 9.0 | 0.0-17.7 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 11.0 | 4.7-16.4 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 12% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 20.0 | 6.5-28.3 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 2.5-24.0 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.4-20.5 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 4.9-26.1 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 4.5-25.8 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.4-22.2 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 26% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | MED | 20.1 | 10.0-31.3 | ↑15+: 68% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | HIGH | 7.5 | 1.6-15.7 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | HIGH | 7.8 | 0.4-17.1 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 42% | |
| DJ Moore | WR | HIGH | 11.9 | 4.2-22.8 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.5-18.5 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Malik Washington | WR | HIGH | 8.2 | 2.1-15.7 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | HIGH | 9.6 | 2.7-18.5 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.3 | 0.0-20.7 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 59% | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | HIGH | 8.9 | 3.3-16.4 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 22% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.4-26.6 | ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | MED | 22.3 | 11.5-34.9 | ↑15+: 71% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.2-20.7 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Ray Davis | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 0.3-16.1 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 49% | |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | HIGH | 11.4 | 3.6-19.8 | ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 19% | |
| Packers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.0-15.5 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 46% | |
| Chris Boswell | K | HIGH | 8.4 | 1.9-15.6 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 30% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 22% @ 23.8 | 61% @ 14.0 | 17% @ 4.3 | 14.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 23% @ 29.4 | 43% @ 18.6 | 34% @ 7.2 | 17.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 47% @ 24.2 | 29% @ 15.7 | 25% @ 7.9 | 17.8 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 18% @ 20.4 | 61% @ 8.9 | 20% @ 3.0 | 9.8 |
| Jason Myers | K | 22% @ 15.9 | 44% @ 11.2 | 34% @ 5.8 | 10.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 36% @ 14.7 | 35% @ 9.2 | 28% @ 3.6 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 26% @ 24.0 | 41% @ 15.2 | 33% @ 5.6 | 14.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 70% @ 21.7 | 5% @ 14.8 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 23% @ 16.3 | 40% @ 8.0 | 37% @ 1.3 | 7.5 |
No urgent adds needed. WR depth thin with MHJ out and McMillan on bye. Consider Garrett Wilson if healthy for Week 15 depth.
No major injury concerns.
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.